A Chance of Rain
Published:
I was always confused by what a “chance of rain” meant (before I started graduate school and worked on probabilistic forecasts). It’s an odd way to represent a prediction - in practice, people just want to know whether or not it will rain. A “chance of rain” doesn’t give me any information on whether to postpone my outdoor plans other than to keep an eye on my weather app. Despite this, people still have a general sense of probability. For instance, a 10% chance of rain means you can probably go on that run, but a 90% chance of rain means you probably don’t need to water your garden.